![]() We estimated significant effects for each of the calibrated time-varying processes, with estimates for the individual-level effect of physical distancing of 37.4% (95%CrI 7.2−56.4%) and of face coverings of 45.9% (95%CrI 32.9−55.6%). ![]() Estimates of the risk of death in those aged ≥75 and of hospitalisation were higher than international estimates, reflecting concentration of cases in high-risk settings. We achieved a good fit overall and for individual health services through a combination of time-varying processes, including case detection, population mobility, school closures, physical distancing and face covering usage. ![]() ![]() We calibrated a detailed compartmental model of Victoria’s second wave to multiple geographically-structured epidemic time-series indicators. During 2020, Victoria was the Australian state hardest hit by COVID-19, but was successful in controlling its second wave through aggressive policy interventions.
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